Filecoin (FIL) volatility and expected moves
Computed from sealed daily candles (Binance spot). Updated 19 October 2026; refreshed every day after the daily candle seals.
Expected moves by horizon
Realised volatility scaled by the square root of time gives a one-standard-deviation expected move: the range price stays inside roughly two-thirds of the time if the last 30 days are representative. It is a description of recent behaviour, not a forecast, and crypto returns have fatter tails than this model assumes.
| Horizon | ±1σ move | Lower band | Upper band |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 5.8% | $0.9843 | $1.11 |
| 1 week | 15.4% | $0.8843 | $1.21 |
| 1 month | 31.8% | $0.7123 | $1.38 |
Leverage against Filecoin's normal range
A leveraged long is liquidated roughly when price falls by 100% divided by the leverage (before maintenance margin, which makes it sooner). Measured against Filecoin's own average daily range of 10.5%, that distance tells you how many ordinary days it takes to reach liquidation with no adverse trend at all.
| Leverage | Distance | Liquidation ≈ | Normal days | Daily σ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2× | 50.0% | $0.5225 | 4.7 | 8.6σ | outside a normal week |
| 3× | 33.3% | $0.6967 | 3.2 | 5.7σ | outside a normal week |
| 5× | 20.0% | $0.8360 | 1.9 | 3.4σ | within a few normal days |
| 10× | 10.0% | $0.9405 | 0.9 | 1.7σ | inside one normal day |
| 20× | 5.0% | $0.9927 | 0.5 | 0.9σ | inside one normal day |
| 50× | 2.0% | $1.02 | 0.2 | 0.3σ | inside one normal day |
Rows marked as inside one normal day mean an ordinary session, not a crash, can close the position. The exact figure depends on the venue's maintenance margin and margin mode: check it with the liquidation price calculator, and set the size from the invalidation point with the FIL position size calculator. The reasoning behind both is in the risk management guide.
Where the moves happen
Volatility is only useful next to structure. Filecoin's daily, weekly and monthly pivot levels, with the nearest support and resistance to the current price, are on the Filecoin key levels page; the longer-horizon scenarios are on the Filecoin price prediction page. Compare FIL with every other tracked coin on the volatility ranking.
Questions about these numbers
How volatile is Filecoin right now?
Filecoin's 30-day realised volatility is 111.1% annualised, which is extreme, and it ranks 34 of 42 coins tracked on this site. Its average daily high-to-low range over the last 30 sealed days is 10.5%.
How much does Filecoin move in a day?
The one-standard-deviation daily move implied by recent volatility is about 5.8%, which from $1.05 is a band of roughly $0.9843 to $1.11. Larger moves happen more often than a normal distribution suggests.
What leverage puts a Filecoin liquidation inside one normal day?
Any leverage whose liquidation distance is smaller than the average daily range of 10.5%: roughly 10× and above, before maintenance margin. The table on this page shows the distance for each common leverage level.