Stellar (XLM) volatility and expected moves
Computed from sealed daily candles (Binance spot). Updated 3 September 2026; refreshed every day after the daily candle seals.
Expected moves by horizon
Realised volatility scaled by the square root of time gives a one-standard-deviation expected move: the range price stays inside roughly two-thirds of the time if the last 30 days are representative. It is a description of recent behaviour, not a forecast, and crypto returns have fatter tails than this model assumes.
| Horizon | ±1σ move | Lower band | Upper band |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 3.5% | $0.1802 | $0.1934 |
| 1 week | 9.4% | $0.1693 | $0.2043 |
| 1 month | 19.4% | $0.1506 | $0.2230 |
Leverage against Stellar's normal range
A leveraged long is liquidated roughly when price falls by 100% divided by the leverage (before maintenance margin, which makes it sooner). Measured against Stellar's own average daily range of 5.1%, that distance tells you how many ordinary days it takes to reach liquidation with no adverse trend at all.
| Leverage | Distance | Liquidation ≈ | Normal days | Daily σ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2× | 50.0% | $0.0934 | 9.9 | 14.1σ | outside a normal week |
| 3× | 33.3% | $0.1245 | 6.6 | 9.4σ | outside a normal week |
| 5× | 20.0% | $0.1494 | 3.9 | 5.6σ | outside a normal week |
| 10× | 10.0% | $0.1681 | 2.0 | 2.8σ | within a few normal days |
| 20× | 5.0% | $0.1775 | 1.0 | 1.4σ | inside one normal day |
| 50× | 2.0% | $0.1831 | 0.4 | 0.6σ | inside one normal day |
Rows marked as inside one normal day mean an ordinary session, not a crash, can close the position. The exact figure depends on the venue's maintenance margin and margin mode: check it with the liquidation price calculator, and set the size from the invalidation point with the XLM position size calculator. The reasoning behind both is in the risk management guide.
Where the moves happen
Volatility is only useful next to structure. Stellar's daily, weekly and monthly pivot levels, with the nearest support and resistance to the current price, are on the Stellar key levels page; the longer-horizon scenarios are on the Stellar price prediction page. Compare XLM with every other tracked coin on the volatility ranking.
Questions about these numbers
How volatile is Stellar right now?
Stellar's 30-day realised volatility is 67.7% annualised, which is moderate for a crypto asset, and it ranks 18 of 42 coins tracked on this site. Its average daily high-to-low range over the last 30 sealed days is 5.1%.
How much does Stellar move in a day?
The one-standard-deviation daily move implied by recent volatility is about 3.5%, which from $0.1868 is a band of roughly $0.1802 to $0.1934. Larger moves happen more often than a normal distribution suggests.
What leverage puts a Stellar liquidation inside one normal day?
Any leverage whose liquidation distance is smaller than the average daily range of 5.1%: roughly 20× and above, before maintenance margin. The table on this page shows the distance for each common leverage level.